Yesterday, the Bank of Canada did exactly what most people expected.
Nothing.
No rate cut.
No hike.
Just… a pause.
On the surface, that doesn’t sound very interesting. But in reality, it tells us a lot about the environment we’re in right now.
A central bank stuck in the middle
The Bank of Canada is being pulled in two directions at once.
Inflation is still above target — and while it’s easing, it hasn’t cooled enough to give them confidence to cut further.
At the same time, economic growth remains soft and unemployment has crept back toward the 7% range — but not decisively enough to force immediate stimulus.
In plain English:
The economy isn’t weak enough to cut.
And it isn’t strong enough to hike.
So we wait.
And that’s likely how 2026 unfolds — month by month, data point by data point, not with big, decisive moves.
What this means for borrowers
We’re not in a volatile rate environment right now.
We’re in a waiting one.
Prime remains at 4.45%, which means most variable-rate borrowers are still sitting below 4%, depending on their original discount.
Fixed mortgage rates continue to be driven by Canadian bond yields. While yields have moved around recently, they’ve largely stayed within a relatively tight range — with many 5-year fixed rates hovering near 4%, and 3-year fixed options still under that mark.
So while rates matter, this isn’t a moment where one announcement suddenly changes everything.
Which brings me to the bigger point.
In an environment like this, structure matters more than direction
When rates are moving quickly, everyone focuses on where they’re going.
But when rates pause and the path forward is uncertain, what matters most is how you’re set up.
This is where a lot of people get tripped up.
They fixate on:
• predicting the next rate move
• waiting for clarity from the Bank of Canada
• hoping for a “better time” to act
Meanwhile, the people who tend to do well focus on:
• flexibility
• optionality
• and using financing as a tool — not just a cost
Why we’re hosting an in-office class on February 12
Over the years, I’ve noticed that the biggest gap isn’t information — it’s understanding.
Most people were never taught:
- how financing actually works behind the scenes
- how investors and business owners think about debt differently
- how to avoid getting boxed in by structures that made sense once but don’t anymore
That’s why we’re hosting an in-office class on February 12.
This isn’t about chasing the next rate move.
It’s about understanding how to use financing strategically, regardless of what the central bank does next.
We’ll walk through real examples, common mistakes, and the mental models that separate reactive decisions from intentional ones.
Plain English.
No hype.
No pressure.
Over the last few weeks, we’ve talked about clarity, awareness, and options.
This class is for people who want to build on that foundation — not by guessing what happens next, but by understanding how to position themselves through it.
If that sounds useful, the details are below.
Talk soon,
— Vince.
