Is anybody else’s kids stuck on this “6–7” thing right now?
If you don’t know what I’m talking about, there’s this random trend where kids just look for any excuse to say “6–7.”
No one knows why.
No one can explain it.
But every kid seems to think it’s hilarious.
I’ve got a buddy just outside New York City, and his kids are doing the exact same thing.
Same ages.
Same obsession.
And this past weekend, even our Elf on the Shelf — Rosey Rosey — joined in.
The kids woke up to Rosey proudly displaying “6–7,” and they went absolutely wild.
At first, it was cute.
Now it’s everywhere.
Like most trends, it spread like wildfire… and nobody really understands it.
Meanwhile, while we were keeping up with Elf theatrics, two major interest rate announcements dropped yesterday — one from the Bank of Canada, and one from the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Let’s break down what actually matters.
1. The Bank of Canada didn’t move yesterday… because they can’t (yet)
As expected, the BoC held its overnight rate.
Not because the economy is thriving — but because they’re stuck between:
- Inflation that’s cooling, but not comfortably
- An economy that’s weakening faster than they’d like
If they cut too early → risk of inflation picking back up
If they wait too long → risk of deeper slowdown
So for now, the Bank of Canada is doing the safest thing:
holding steady.
Cuts are still likely coming — just not immediately.
2. The Fed did cut yesterday — and that matters more for Canada than people think
The U.S. Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark rate by 25 bps.
Here’s the part many Canadians forget:
Canada does not control its monetary destiny.
The United States does.
So when the Fed cuts:
- Global borrowing costs shift
- Bond markets move
- Liquidity conditions ease
- Pressure builds on Canada to eventually follow
Historically, where the Fed goes → Canada eventually follows, even if timing differs.
Yesterday continued that pattern.
3. Something confusing happened — Canadian bond markets priced in hikes
Yes, on the same day the Fed cut and the BoC held, Canadian bond markets began pricing in the possibility of future rate hikes.
It sounds backward — but here’s the simple explanation:
- Markets price expectations, not headlinesThe Fed’s tone was cautious, not aggressively dovish
- Canada’s shelter inflation remains stubborn
- Investors think BoC cuts are coming, just later than previously expected
This doesn’t mean hikes are the base case.
It simply means the road to lower rates will not be a perfectly smooth line.
And that’s why mortgage strategy matters more than forecasting.
4. What yesterday’s decisions mean for mortgages
Variable Rates
No change yesterday.
But if the Fed continues cutting into 2025 and Canada’s economic data softens, the BoC will eventually follow.
Direction: likely lower.
Timing: uncertain.
Fixed Rates
Fixed rates follow bond yields, not the BoC overnight rate.
And here’s the important part:
Bond yields have already drifted lower in anticipation of global easing.
Translation:
Fixed mortgage rates may improve before the Bank of Canada officially cuts anything.
This surprises people every time — but it’s how the system works.
5. The bigger picture: this is still the “new game”
All of this reinforces something I’ve said for months:
The old financial playbook doesn’t work in the world we live in now.
We’re in a system where:
- Inflation chips away at savings
- Governments run significant deficits as a norm
- Asset prices react to liquidity, not logic
- Central banks respond to global pressures, not just domestic data
- Policy shifts show up in bond markets before official announcements
This is not the era of “save your way ahead.”
This is the new game —
where understanding the system gives you an edge, and reacting late costs you.
6. What should you do right now?
It depends on your situation, but broadly:
If you’re renewing in the next 12 months:
Start planning now — timing matters.
If you’re considering buying or investing:
Don’t wait for a BoC headline.
Opportunities in fixed rates often appear before official cuts.
If you already have a variable:
We’re likely past the peak — the next decision is when (or if) to lock in.
If you feel confused:
You’re not alone — this environment is noisy and counterintuitive.
That’s why you need strategy, not guesses.
If you want to walk through what yesterday’s decisions mean for your mortgage, renewal, or investment plans, just reply to this email and we’ll set up a time to chat.
Talk soon,
— Vince
P.S.
If your kids suddenly start shouting “6–7” for no reason… just smile and pretend you understand. That’s what I’ve been doing. 😄
