Hey there,
Last week I shared some thoughts about the federal election and how—regardless of who wins—most of the financial system remains the same. But that doesn’t mean what happens in Ottawa is irrelevant.
There’s been a lot of noise since the election. Talk of affordability, rate relief, supply incentives, rental construction. Plenty of headlines.
But here’s what I’ve been noticing in real conversations:
A lot of developers, investors, and business owners are still sitting with uncertainty. But now, instead of waiting for clarity, I’m seeing a different mindset emerge:
“We can’t keep sitting on our hands. We need to start building.”
Not because they suddenly feel confident. But because they’re more anxious about doing nothing for too long.
That’s a very real shift. And it’s pushing people to act—sometimes before fully rethinking their strategy.
So what could this new government mean for people making mortgage and financing decisions right now?
Here’s how I’m looking at it:
Interest rates:
A rate cut in June feels like a coin toss right now. But I still believe we’ll see more than one cut before the end of the year.
That said, recent developments – particularly the government’s plan to roll out over $130 billion in fiscal stimulus – may take some of the pressure off the Bank of Canada to move aggressively.
We may still see lower rates, but the size and speed of those cuts could be more measured than expected.
In the meantime, fixed-rate mortgage borrowers have already seen some relief.
Bond yields have softened. Lender spreads have narrowed a bit.
Variable rate borrowers will likely benefit as well—but how much and when remains unclear.
And don’t forget: the Bank of Canada also has to weigh the impact of trade tensions and inflation from new U.S. tariffs. That makes rate policy even trickier.
Housing policy:
All signs point toward more support for purpose-built rental housing. CMHC’s MLI Select program is getting a lot of attention, and rightfully so.
Longer amortizations, higher loan amounts, better pricing—without the need for pre-sales. That’s why developers are leaning in.
But that doesn’t mean these projects are simple. When everyone shifts to the same strategy, execution and deal structure become even more important.
Mortgage strategy:
This is where you can get ahead—or fall behind.
Right now is the time to build in flexibility. You don’t need to predict the future—you just need to prepare for a few different versions of it.
Sometimes that means locking in a shorter fixed term. Sometimes it means repositioning equity. Sometimes it’s just about having liquidity and options.
The key is knowing which one is right for you.
If you’re sitting on the sidelines, unsure what to do next—you’re not alone. But this isn’t a time to guess. It’s a time to plan.
Until next time,
Vince
P.S. I’ve been seeing more investors and developers shifting strategy without fully thinking through the second- and third-order consequences. If you’re feeling that pressure too—let’s look at it together. One conversation could save you a lot of course-correction later.
