May and June are absolute chaos in our household.
Four birthdays. A wedding anniversary. Year-end school events.
Kids’ gymnastics and soccer schedules overlapping.
I live and die by my Outlook work calendar.
But when it comes to the family schedule? Let’s just say my wife took matters into her own hands and taped The Monster Calendar right to my office desk (that’s what it’s actually called – it’s huge!).
And just like that — our own mortgage renewal made its way to the top of the list.
So this week, I figured I’d share what I’m doing with my own mortgage.
Because the truth is… I’ve had this conversation with dozens of clients lately.
Everyone’s trying to read the tea leaves.
Everyone’s looking for the “right” move.
Here’s where I’m at…
I’m probably going variable.
Not because I expect the prime rate to crash back to COVID-era lows (we’re not going back to 1.45%).
But because:
- I do think we’ll see some easing in variable rates —maybe 50–75 basis points
- I follow interest rates and bond markets daily, so I can react quickly
- And if I end up locking in later at a similar rate to today, or slightly higher? That’s fine by me. It won’t break me.
I’m not expecting to save a fortune.
But I am positioning myself for a bit of flexibility.
And the reality is:
I just don’t believe we’re going to see rates shoot up from here.
Why?
Because the Canadian economy is starting to slow.
Inflation is easing.
Consumer spending is dropping.
Delinquencies are up.
Mortgage defaults — while still low — are climbing.
And the headlines might not be screaming it yet…
But I believe the Bank of Canada knows what’s coming.
At their next meeting (June 4th), I think they’ll hold steady.
But by summer? There’s a real chance we see a cut.
Maybe even two before the end of 2024.
So what should you do if your mortgage is coming up for renewal?
- Start early. Don’t wait until you get the bank’s letter in the mail.
- Run the fixed vs. variable math. Look at actual dollar differences — not just rate percentages.
- Ask about structure, not just rates. Open vs. closed. 3-year vs. 5-year. Blends, early exits, prepayment options.
- Don’t assume the bank is offering you their best deal. (They’re probably not.)
- Factor in your life plans. Are you staying put? Planning a move? Upsizing? Downsizing? Every decision should match your goals.
I know this stuff can feel overwhelming.
Even for someone like me, who lives and breathes this stuff…
When it’s your own mortgage renewal, you start second-guessing yourself.
So if you’re feeling stuck — or just want to talk it through — you know where to find me.
– Vince
P.S. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve seen people pick a mortgage rate and term based on a headline or their neighbour’s advice. Don’t do that. This is your plan, your numbers, your future. Make sure it actually fits.
P.P.S. If you can’t stomach opting for a variable rate mortgage, then choose a 5-year fixed. No point playing with shorter fixed terms – too much uncertainty at the moment.
