The most common question I’ve been hearing lately is:
“Where do you think rates are going?”
It’s a fair question. But here’s the truth: nobody knows for sure.
And even if you happen to guess right, that doesn’t guarantee a win.
A real example
Back in early 2022, one of my commercial borrowers locked in a very attractive 10-year mortgage.
At the time, it looked brilliant. Rates were heading up, and his cost of borrowing was locked in at historic lows.
From a rate perspective, it was the perfect move.
But business doesn’t always follow the script.
Over the past couple of years, he’s had opportunities to expand and grow his company. New locations, new markets, new revenue streams.
And here’s the problem: the lender he locked in with wasn’t the right partner for this stage of growth. They admitted he was a strong borrower — but they weren’t willing (or able) to finance the expansion the way he needed.
Other lenders were lined up, ready to support him. But the penalty to break that “cheap” long-term mortgage was massive.
So what started out as a win has now become a handcuff.
The hidden risk most people miss
This is why predicting rates isn’t the same as having a strategy.
Too many borrowers make decisions based on one variable:
- “I need the lowest rate.”
- “I think rates will go up, so I’ll lock in.”
- “I think rates will fall, so I’ll float.”
The problem? Life doesn’t move in a straight line.
Jobs change. Families grow. Businesses expand. Opportunities show up when you least expect them.
And if your mortgage doesn’t give you the ability to adapt, that “cheap” rate can end up costing you more than you saved.
The new way to think about it
The smartest borrowers I work with don’t waste energy trying to outguess the market. Instead, they focus on:
- Flexibility — terms that allow them to pivot when opportunities or challenges show up.
- Structure — balancing today’s costs with tomorrow’s possibilities.
- Partners — lenders and advisors who understand their long-term goals, not just the short-term transaction.
- Buffers — the room to move when life changes, rather than being locked into one rigid path.
Because the real risk isn’t whether rates go up or down.
It’s being stuck in a mortgage that won’t let you move forward.
My advice right now
- Don’t obsess about predicting the future of rates.
- Build a mortgage strategy that works in multiple scenarios.
- Make sure your lender and structure give you options, not just the lowest payment today.
If you’ve got a renewal coming up — or you’re wondering how to structure your mortgage after the recent rate cut — let’s talk.
Talk soon,
— Vince
P.S.
Being “right” on rates doesn’t make you successful. Having the right strategy does.
