This past week, I had the opportunity to attend a private event hosted by the local C21 team, featuring economist Ben Rabidoux.
Ben is well-known across the industry for his independent, research-driven view of the Canadian real estate market — and his presentation didn’t disappoint.
Here’s a quick summary of the key takeaways I found particularly relevant:
First, while national headlines tend to focus on broad trends, real estate is local — and Windsor-Essex has its own story.
Ben pointed out that Windsor remains one of the most affordable housing markets in all of Ontario.
At the same time, Windsor is seeing some of the strongest population growth in the province, driven by a combination of immigration and migration from more expensive areas.
More people moving here + relatively affordable homes = pressure on housing demand.
The second major theme was about supply.
Ben emphasized that while it may feel like a lot of homes are being completed today (projects that started during the 2021–2022 boom), new housing starts have dropped sharply — especially in the ownership segment.
Translation: we’re not building enough new homes to meet the growing demand — particularly single-family homes.
This isn’t a short-term issue. Given how long it takes to bring new housing projects to market — and with many developers sitting on the sidelines — it’s likely that supply will stay tight even as demand continues to grow.
This aligns with my own view: over the next few years, single-family homes are going to become increasingly scarce and increasingly valuable.
Another key insight Ben shared was about uncertainty.
Today’s market is stuck in a bit of a holding pattern.
Buyers are cautious, waiting to see where interest rates go.
Sellers are hesitant, not wanting to sell into a softer market unless they have to.
Developers are pausing, waiting for clarity on financing costs and market conditions.
Ben’s take?
Uncertainty is temporary.
Once there’s more clarity — particularly around interest rates — the fundamentals will reassert themselves.
And when that happens, the underlying drivers — population growth, affordability, supply shortages — are likely to push the market forward again.
Finally, Ben touched on the real estate cycle.
While no one has a crystal ball, Ben noted that, historically, housing markets bottom out just before interest rates start falling.
Given where we are today — with the Bank of Canada hinting at cuts and inflation cooling — it’s possible that we are near the bottom of this cycle.
My take:
I’m not a big fan of trying to time the market perfectly — no one gets it exactly right.
But what I do believe is that the fundamentals — population growth, limited supply, and strong long-term demand — remain firmly in place, especially in secondary markets like Windsor-Essex.
And those who stay focused on the fundamentals will be better positioned than those who react to every headline.
P.S.
If you’re thinking about buying, investing, or refinancing, and want to better understand how today’s market conditions could impact your plans, reach out — always happy to chat.
